0xd33d…8489
Skill vs luck
0xd33d…8489 on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$441. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0xd33d…8489: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489. Data CC BY 4.0.
0xd33d…8489: +$441 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$441
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 98¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $2.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 98¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $4.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 98¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $8.8K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 98¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $4.9K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Up
@ 99.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | $1.4K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?