Dapper-Notice-Transit
Skill vs luck
Dapper-Notice-Transit on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$12K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Dapper-Notice-Transit: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd2e654d22a3e6667c2f79a90065aec9451dcf5a2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Dapper-Notice-Transit: −$12K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- −$4.4K
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$4.0K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$3.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Legacy @ 45¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $3.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Oleksii Krutykh
@ 31¢
Braga: Oleksii Krutykh vs Luka Mikrut |
Braga: Oleksii Krutykh vs Luka Mikrut | $4.0K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Magda Linette
@ 63¢
Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linette |
Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linette | $3.2K |
| Sep 14 | BUY No @ 25¢ | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14? ↗ | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?