Exotic-Day-Piano
Skill vs luck
Exotic-Day-Piano on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 51%–100%) · profit +$149. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Exotic-Day-Piano: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xcdf5407d725cbe5956810ed34c5ae486e93693bb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Exotic-Day-Piano: +$149 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 51%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$149
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Warriors @ 99¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Thunder @ 98¢ | Suns vs. Thunder ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Hawks
@ 95¢
Hawks vs. Hornets |
Hawks vs. Hornets | $1.5K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Rangers
@ 99.81¢
Ducks vs. Rangers |
Ducks vs. Rangers | $1.6K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?