Fresh-Poppy
Skill vs luck
Fresh-Poppy on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit −$3.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fresh-Poppy: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xccff3146eff948611822511963392278b243e845. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fresh-Poppy: −$3.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$2.4K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$747
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Lorenzo Musetti @ 62¢ | Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Cavaliers @ 83¢ | Cavaliers vs. 76ers ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Las Vegas Aces @ 79¢ | Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 5? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 5? | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Yes @ 60¢ | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 16¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 4? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 4? | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?