Untidy-Bonfire
Skill vs luck
Untidy-Bonfire on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$3.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Untidy-Bonfire: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xcadf92be90ae5c99bde4963ed43d03fbca4e1f60. Data CC BY 4.0.
Untidy-Bonfire: +$3.4K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$765
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$2.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 64¢ | Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY CGN Esports
@ 62¢
Valorant: CGN Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs |
Valorant: CGN Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs | $3.1K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Shopify Rebellion Gold
@ 72¢
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs |
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs | $2.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.