Stiff-Desktop

0xc9bfc7986767173b4f1c3fc9b2c6b255fc7381c0

Skill vs luck

Stiff-Desktop on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 30%–90%) · profit +$6.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Stiff-Desktop: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc9bfc7986767173b4f1c3fc9b2c6b255fc7381c0. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Stiff-Desktop: +$6.4K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 30%–90%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$6.4K

return +48.8%

Settled bets

$13K staked

Won

66.7%

95% range 30%–90%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 15 – Oct 29: +$6.4K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +1.3% (2,530 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 29	BUY Astralis @ 58¢ Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	$1.8K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 63¢ Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	$2.4K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 63¢ Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	$2.6K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 36¢ Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	$1.6K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 62¢ Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	$2.1K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 36¢ Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	$1.1K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 62¢ Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	$1.6K
Oct 29	BUY FURIA @ 36¢ Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	$1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793257219, computed 2026-10-29 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793257219 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed