Haunting-Bottomline-Intentionality
Skill vs luck
Haunting-Bottomline-Intentionality on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit −$5.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Haunting-Bottomline-Intentionality: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc909625648c05cf65638c2532620ab386ef21f2c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Haunting-Bottomline-Intentionality: −$5.1K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$271
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$2.6K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 20¢ | Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 25¢
Exact Score: Venezia FC 0 - 1 SSC Napoli? |
Exact Score: Venezia FC 0 - 1 SSC Napoli? | $1.1K |
| Oct 13 | BUY Yes
@ 19¢
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 1 Club Brugge KV? |
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 1 Club Brugge KV? | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 99¢
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 North Macedonia? |
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 North Macedonia? | $2.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 57¢
England leading at halftime? |
England leading at halftime? | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 66¢
England leading at halftime? |
England leading at halftime? | $2.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 61¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? | $5.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 61¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? | $5.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?