Full-Discrimination
Skill vs luck
Full-Discrimination on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$6.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Full-Discrimination: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc8ad11a2c47477f80c1e079956470e030ec683dc. Data CC BY 4.0.
Full-Discrimination: +$6.1K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$6.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Tatiana Prozorova @ 19¢ | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Tatiana Prozorova ↗ | $5.5K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Tatiana Prozorova @ 20¢ | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Tatiana Prozorova ↗ | $7.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Katie Boulter @ 60¢ | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Boulter ↗ | $18K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Katie Boulter @ 59¢ | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Boulter ↗ | $6.8K |
| Nov 2 | SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | Raptors vs. Lakers ↗ | $83K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Valentin Vacherot @ 42¢ | Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot ↗ | $3.6K |
| Oct 19 | BUY James McCabe
@ 49¢
Guangzhou 2: James McCabe vs Elias Ymer |
Guangzhou 2: James McCabe vs Elias Ymer | $1.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.