0xc4fd…0677
Skill vs luck
0xc4fd…0677 on Polymarket: 13 settled bets · won 39% (95% range 18%–65%) · profit +$3.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0xc4fd…0677: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4fd4e711cb3b5bccc6b744f916fb6fae7a90677. Data CC BY 4.0.
0xc4fd…0677: +$3.6K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 39% (95% range 18%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$3.0K
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$6.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | SELL Up
@ 99.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | $2.1K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Pistons @ 29¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Over
@ 51¢
Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 6.5 |
Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 6.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Liverpool FC
@ 84¢
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) | $2.1K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $2.2K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Over
@ 32¢
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 |
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?