Raw-Pricing
Skill vs luck
Raw-Pricing on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 71% (95% range 36%–92%) · profit +$5.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Raw-Pricing: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4c915914de877a79fae0a2c2dfe69d9d690617d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Raw-Pricing: +$5.0K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 36%–92%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.1K
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$4.5K
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- +$3.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | SELL Over @ 48¢ | Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 225.5 ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 |
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 | $1.7K |
| Sep 9 | BUY LDU de Quito
@ 56¢
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) |
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Yes
@ 54¢
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-09-05? |
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-09-05? | $1.4K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.