0xc4be…b314
Skill vs luck
0xc4be…b314 on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 20% (95% range 4%–62%) · profit −$739. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0xc4be…b314: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4be0eaba9e98643390c0b047adb9e491e91b314. Data CC BY 4.0.
0xc4be…b314: −$739 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 4%–62%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$739
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Under @ 56¢ | Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 16 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shenzhen Leopards: O/U 186.5 |
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shenzhen Leopards: O/U 186.5 | $2.2K |
| Oct 16 | SELL Under
@ 99¢
Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5 |
Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5 | $4.0K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Tasmania JackJumpers vs. Adelaide 36ers: O/U 184.5 |
Tasmania JackJumpers vs. Adelaide 36ers: O/U 184.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Over
@ 88¢
Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5 |
Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5 | $1.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?