Measly-Plowman-Gathering

0xc4b01814e02f3b6ad440c8ce0c5e8eff95421403

Skill vs luck

Measly-Plowman-Gathering on Polymarket: 26 settled bets · won 62% (95% range 43%–78%) · profit +$12K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Measly-Plowman-Gathering: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4b01814e02f3b6ad440c8ce0c5e8eff95421403. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Measly-Plowman-Gathering: +$12K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 43%–78%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$12K

return +12.1%

Settled bets

$102K staked

Won

61.5%

95% range 43%–78%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 17 – Nov 1: +$12K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.8% (2,670 positions).

In the live feed

SELL $5.7K

Over @ 99.9¢ → now 99.95¢

6m ago

Perth Glory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 31	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5	Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5	$4.4K
Oct 31	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5	FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5	$11K
Oct 31	BUY Over @ 95¢ FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5	FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5	$10K
Oct 31	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: 1st Half O/U 1.5	FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: 1st Half O/U 1.5	$3.1K
Oct 31	BUY Over @ 94¢ AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5	AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5	$17K
Oct 31	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	$20K
Oct 31	BUY Over @ 94¢ AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	$7.8K
Oct 31	BUY Over @ 94¢ AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	$10K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793516413, computed 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793516413 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed