Complete-Perch
Skill vs luck
Complete-Perch on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$6.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Complete-Perch: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc46d4c5abe09aba4a19328a008fa774f7c56a968. Data CC BY 4.0.
Complete-Perch: −$6.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$6.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 48¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No
@ 34¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | $1.5K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 13¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Aug 31 | BUY Yes @ 42¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?