Half-Bus-Complement
Skill vs luck
Half-Bus-Complement on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$102. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Half-Bus-Complement: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc2fb482b5c1c66df7d72af245b1acaad05fe4cba. Data CC BY 4.0.
Half-Bus-Complement: +$102 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$102
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 95¢ | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-18? |
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-18? | $1.9K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?