Happy-Childbirth-Judge
Skill vs luck
Happy-Childbirth-Judge on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit +$635. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Happy-Childbirth-Judge: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc2f19377737fefb77885b0095599a4207ea581d9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Happy-Childbirth-Judge: +$635 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- +$1.1K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$416
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Team Spirit @ 98¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 31 | SELL LOS @ 99.9¢ | LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Team Spirit @ 96¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Team Spirit @ 80¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Team Spirit @ 97¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 30 | SELL PARIVISION @ 87¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.