Strong-Parchment
Skill vs luck
Strong-Parchment on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–35%) · profit −$3.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Strong-Parchment: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbf3345df06a2008344804876a9ee4435aba10353. Data CC BY 4.0.
Strong-Parchment: −$3.6K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–35%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 17 – Oct 2
- −$25
- Oct 2 – Oct 16
- −$2.0K
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY LOS @ 33¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Karmine Corp
@ 58¢
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Karmine Corp
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner |
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | SELL G2 Esports
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Nongshim RedForce @ 99¢ | Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Team Liquid @ 99.59¢ | Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 29 | SELL G2 Esports
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner | $2.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.