Cheap-Founder-Pin
Skill vs luck
Cheap-Founder-Pin on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$11. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Cheap-Founder-Pin: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbedbfed921367b21a2fb20f9e214d1c109d1c818. Data CC BY 4.0.
Cheap-Founder-Pin: −$11 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$11
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Stefan Kozlov @ 99.9¢ | Sioux Falls: Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone ↗ | $7.0K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 77¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 27 | SELL James Kent Trotter
@ 99.9¢
Sioux Falls: Ozan Baris vs James Kent Trotter |
Sioux Falls: Ozan Baris vs James Kent Trotter | $1.8K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Alexander Volkanovski @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $2.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?