Grotesque-Siding
Skill vs luck
Grotesque-Siding on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Grotesque-Siding: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbb985dc6d168f4e830f5448dc295b83054c16d3c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Grotesque-Siding: −$1.1K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 30 | SELL No @ 96¢ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $5.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No @ 92¢ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 12 | SELL No @ 76¢ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $4.1K |
| Sep 5 | BUY No @ 87¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $5.8K |
| Aug 24 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | $1.1K |
| Aug 24 | SELL No
@ 99.32¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?