Untidy-Scene
Skill vs luck
Untidy-Scene on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 56% (95% range 27%–81%) · profit +$967. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Untidy-Scene: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb99a8bb61d6aa89ec1c371d4daf13fe39f1aef6f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Untidy-Scene: +$967 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 27%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$967
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 30¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Invictus Gaming @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $4.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL LYON @ 99.9¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $7.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Invictus Gaming @ 76¢ | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $6.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Secret Whales @ 43¢ | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Karmine Corp @ 39¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 24 | BUY G2 Esports @ 68¢ | LoL: G2 Esports vs LOS (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Top Esports @ 46¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?