Secret-Kale
Skill vs luck
Secret-Kale on Polymarket: 51 settled bets · won 6% (95% range 2%–16%) · profit −$13K. Skill vs luck: worse than luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Secret-Kale: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb8c4482802bbc9256926cde54b3daa03ee8e7385. Data CC BY 4.0.
Secret-Kale: −$13K on 51 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 6% (95% range 2%–16%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$9.1K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$1.5K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$2.0K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$7
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | SELL Orgryte IS
@ 99.9¢
Spread: IF Elfsborg (-1.5) |
Spread: IF Elfsborg (-1.5) | $1.2K |
| Nov 1 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01? |
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01? | $1.5K |
| Nov 1 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 |
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 | $2.1K |
| Nov 1 | SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $1.3K |
| Nov 1 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5 |
Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Lausanne-Sport
@ 99.9¢
Spread: FC St. Gallen 1879 (-1.5) |
Spread: FC St. Gallen 1879 (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 11 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will El Masry SC win on 2026-10-11? |
Will El Masry SC win on 2026-10-11? | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Benin
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) |
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.