Fitting-Award
Skill vs luck
Fitting-Award on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$315. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fitting-Award: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb3cd372ade50de8703d8920105f525c0958cb044. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fitting-Award: +$315 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$315
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Bucks @ 73¢ | Pacers vs. Bucks ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Thunder @ 94¢ | Clippers vs. Thunder ↗ | $1.4K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?