Discrete-Instrumentation
Skill vs luck
Discrete-Instrumentation on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$2.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Discrete-Instrumentation: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb29b80bcf182df8ce9d0e8e446a16d017421d21b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Discrete-Instrumentation: −$2.6K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- −$2.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Seahawks @ 63¢ | Bears vs. Seahawks ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Under
@ 57¢
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5 |
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5 | $1.7K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Daniil Medvedev
@ 65¢
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Daniil Medvedev (+1.5) |
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Daniil Medvedev (+1.5) | $1.5K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.