Harmonious-Pond
Skill vs luck
Harmonious-Pond on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$9.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Harmonious-Pond: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb2088bb79ba9b217a1d261ab95c8e1c6e25ec095. Data CC BY 4.0.
Harmonious-Pond: −$9.7K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$9.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Legacy @ 72¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Legacy @ 65¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY MOUZ
@ 74¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | $5.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?