Snappy-Fold-Stepson
Skill vs luck
Snappy-Fold-Stepson on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–39%) · profit −$10K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Snappy-Fold-Stepson: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb035c5b61f2efeaa0b6ff34346cf7ed18165ff78. Data CC BY 4.0.
Snappy-Fold-Stepson: −$10K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–39%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.2K
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- −$5.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY Braden Shick
@ 46¢
Fort Worth: Braden Shick vs Gabriel Debru |
Fort Worth: Braden Shick vs Gabriel Debru | $1.8K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Brandon Nakashima
@ 99.9¢
Lyon Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima |
Lyon Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima | $1.9K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Celtics @ 72¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $3.4K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Buccaneers @ 53¢ | Browns vs. Buccaneers ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 1 | BUY Seattle Mariners
@ 76¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox |
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox | $3.8K |
| Aug 31 | BUY
@ 57¢
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays AND San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves |
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays AND San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves | $3.3K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?