Personal-Fillet
Skill vs luck
Personal-Fillet on Polymarket: 39 settled bets · won 46% (95% range 32%–61%) · profit −$5.0K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Personal-Fillet: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xafe4272b4fb0bcc1d734ee2cdec3e78cdc94f3f7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Personal-Fillet: −$5.0K on 39 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 32%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 38 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$3.6K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$1.2K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$711
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$4.6K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$4.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Clippers @ 54¢ | Clippers vs. Warriors ↗ | $4.4K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5 |
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5 | $1.5K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Jilin Northeast Tigers
@ 55¢
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions |
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions | $1.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Qingdao Eagles
@ 56¢
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles |
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles | $4.1K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Knicks @ 61¢ | Pistons vs. Knicks ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Guangzhou Loong Lions
@ 56¢
Spread: Beijing Royal Fighters (-8.5) |
Spread: Beijing Royal Fighters (-8.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Jiangsu Dragons
@ 56¢
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Fujian Sturgeons |
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Fujian Sturgeons | $2.1K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Ningbo Rockets
@ 56¢
Spread: Jilin Northeast Tigers (-7.5) |
Spread: Jilin Northeast Tigers (-7.5) | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.