Impolite-Hardware-Wax
Skill vs luck
Impolite-Hardware-Wax on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit $0. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Impolite-Hardware-Wax: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xafdbf243495527dbaf68e7b01a03ed08142cbca0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Impolite-Hardware-Wax: $0 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- $0
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 71¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Steelers
@ 70¢
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5) |
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Under
@ 69¢
Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5 |
Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5 | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?