Ultimate-Vendor
Skill vs luck
Ultimate-Vendor on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ultimate-Vendor: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xabea5ba30d2d0cf857cf76ba347c3ff9a5d31c3f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ultimate-Vendor: −$1 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$1
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-18? ↗ | $1.1K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?