Verifiable-Default
Skill vs luck
Verifiable-Default on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$2. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Verifiable-Default: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xaaa33b1da4b6e5a7bdfc387059a5d038bb7eff46. Data CC BY 4.0.
Verifiable-Default: −$2 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$2
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL FURIA @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $2.5K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?