Well-Worn-Cruise-Civilian
Skill vs luck
Well-Worn-Cruise-Civilian on Polymarket: 15 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 15%–58%) · profit −$3.5K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Well-Worn-Cruise-Civilian: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xaa903818f3f2d6fb6790cc55672bb99ab734c709. Data CC BY 4.0.
Well-Worn-Cruise-Civilian: −$3.5K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 15%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$3.4K
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- +$1.4K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Ohio State @ 36¢ | Ohio State vs. USC ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Lions
@ 57¢
Spread: Lions (-1.5) |
Spread: Lions (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Jaguars @ 49¢ | Eagles vs. Jaguars ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Jaguars
@ 38¢
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5) |
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | SELL England
@ 99.9¢
Spread: England (-1.5) |
Spread: England (-1.5) | $4.1K |
| Oct 6 | SELL No
@ 57¢
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06? | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY SMU
@ 52¢
Spread: SMU (-21.5) |
Spread: SMU (-21.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Pittsburgh @ 53¢ | Spread: Virginia Tech (-2.5) ↗ | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.