0xa9f3…4bce
Skill vs luck
0xa9f3…4bce on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0xa9f3…4bce: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa9f3f91cb907a7c3b4b2f2a8719ad68a71284bce. Data CC BY 4.0.
0xa9f3…4bce: +$3.5K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$3.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? ↗ | $15K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 81¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 81¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $13K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.