Terrible-Notice
Skill vs luck
Terrible-Notice on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$1.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Terrible-Notice: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa928ac7d7b7ec4da2b829433d84eeb7a1ada9575. Data CC BY 4.0.
Terrible-Notice: +$1.9K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$1.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Bears @ 54¢ | Spread: Bears (-2.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Avalanche vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 |
Avalanche vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 | $1.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?