Incomplete-Reorganisation
Skill vs luck
Incomplete-Reorganisation on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$185. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Incomplete-Reorganisation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa85f12a7c9537a3ee8c7907d6f630770e1d8d9ec. Data CC BY 4.0.
Incomplete-Reorganisation: +$185 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$185
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes @ 92¢ | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Yes
@ 90¢
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? |
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | $1.6K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?