Impish-Cottage
Skill vs luck
Impish-Cottage on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$15K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Impish-Cottage: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa5aa873702c0b28480246b6b474d48cb12869134. Data CC BY 4.0.
Impish-Cottage: −$15K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$15K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Timberwolves @ 42¢ | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $14K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Timberwolves @ 59¢ | Raptors vs. Timberwolves ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 |
Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | $1.7K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 |
Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | $5.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?