Few-Prevention

0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8

Skill vs luck

Few-Prevention on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$199. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Few-Prevention: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Few-Prevention: +$199 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$199

return +16.3%

Settled bets

$1.2K staked

Won

100.0%

95% range 21%–100%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 6 – Sep 23: +$199

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.1% (2,658 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	SELL No @ 82¢ Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	$1.1K
Oct 22	BUY Yes @ 51¢ Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗	$1.6K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 51¢ Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗	$1.0K
Oct 14	BUY No @ 48¢ Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗	$2.0K
Oct 9	BUY No @ 39¢ Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗	$1.5K
Oct 4	SELL No @ 97¢ Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	$1.5K
Sep 18	SELL No @ 91¢ Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	$1.1K
Sep 18	BUY Yes @ 22¢ Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	$1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1793170821, computed 2026-10-28 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793170821 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed