Adventurous-Usher
Skill vs luck
Adventurous-Usher on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$835. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Adventurous-Usher: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa4eb1cc5bd05bbcad1cd44e76308d5b8ecbb393f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Adventurous-Usher: −$835 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- −$820
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$15
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 98¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Down
@ 96¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET | $1.0K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Up
@ 58¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?