Super-Transmission
Skill vs luck
Super-Transmission on Polymarket: 13 settled bets · won 69% (95% range 42%–87%) · profit +$25K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Super-Transmission: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa3e1800b0c687f557dca54478b50d18b7b502b3b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Super-Transmission: +$25K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 42%–87%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$25K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Eero Vasa
@ 52¢
Bratislava 2: Andrej Martin vs Eero Vasa |
Bratislava 2: Andrej Martin vs Eero Vasa | $4.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Ian Luca Vertberger @ 75¢ | Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok ↗ | $4.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Arvid Nordquist
@ 53¢
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist |
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist | $2.7K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Arvid Nordquist
@ 53¢
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist |
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist | $1.3K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Arvid Nordquist
@ 55¢
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist |
Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist | $3.4K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Kenny de Schepper
@ 35¢
Taranto: Jacopo Vasami vs Kenny de Schepper |
Taranto: Jacopo Vasami vs Kenny de Schepper | $2.6K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Marie Vogt
@ 63¢
W15 Monastir: Marie Vogt vs Kayo Nishimura |
W15 Monastir: Marie Vogt vs Kayo Nishimura | $14K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Nebraska
@ 61¢
Spread: Nebraska (-3.5) |
Spread: Nebraska (-3.5) | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.