0xa21f…4d8b
Skill vs luck
0xa21f…4d8b on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$795. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0xa21f…4d8b: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa21f65cf784ef97e1961dba68783f7d706d34d8b. Data CC BY 4.0.
0xa21f…4d8b: +$795 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$795
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Over
@ 94¢
Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 |
Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | $2.4K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Over
@ 45¢
Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 |
Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | $1.8K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Ravens @ 39¢ | Ravens vs. Bills ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 31 | BUY 76ers @ 52¢ | 76ers vs. Hornets ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Packers @ 52¢ | Panthers vs. Packers ↗ | $4.6K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.