0x9d8e…3ab8
Skill vs luck
0x9d8e…3ab8 on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit +$26. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x9d8e…3ab8: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x9d8e…3ab8: +$26 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- −$1
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$34
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$6
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL Dmitry Popko @ 99.9¢ | Florence: Dmitry Popko vs Daniele Rapagnetta ↗ | $6.2K |
| Sep 24 | SELL EXODIA
@ 50¢
Counter-Strike: EXODIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: EXODIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs | $3.0K |
| Sep 21 | BUY G2 Ares
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage | $3.0K |
| Sep 9 | SELL Matteo Vavassori
@ 99.9¢
M15 Tsaghkadzor: Matteo Vavassori vs Evgenii Tiurnev |
M15 Tsaghkadzor: Matteo Vavassori vs Evgenii Tiurnev | $1.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?