Foolish-Caboose

0x99f4cf80217131f82a0ca3399ca6a126df216e5d

Skill vs luck

Foolish-Caboose on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$2.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Foolish-Caboose: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x99f4cf80217131f82a0ca3399ca6a126df216e5d. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Foolish-Caboose: −$2.4K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$2.4K

return −41.2%

Settled bets

$5.9K staked

Won

33.3%

95% range 10%–70%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 3 – Oct 18: −$2.4K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.2% (2,088 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 68¢ Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$1.4K
Oct 7	BUY Yes @ 62¢ Will Mexico win on 2026-10-05?	Will Mexico win on 2026-10-05?	$1.1K
Oct 4	BUY Over @ 61¢ Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	$1.1K
Oct 4	BUY Yes @ 47¢ Will Austria win on 2026-10-04?	Will Austria win on 2026-10-04?	$1.2K
Oct 4	BUY Alex de Minaur @ 78¢ China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev	China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev	$1.1K
Oct 3	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Belarus vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5	Belarus vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5	$1.2K
Sep 20	SELL @ 99¢ Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?	Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?	$2.2K
Sep 20	BUY @ 59¢ Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?	Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?	$1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792306820, computed 2026-10-18 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792306820 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed