Well-Made-Distinction
Skill vs luck
Well-Made-Distinction on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$1.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Well-Made-Distinction: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x97c9e90c1a79d4c4d70455a5f2f689826f549ed4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Well-Made-Distinction: +$1.9K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$1.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 |
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Spurs @ 50¢ | Spread: Spurs (-14.5) ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Bulls @ 49¢ | Spread: Bulls (-1.5) ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes
@ 50¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18? |
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18? | $1.3K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes
@ 50¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18? |
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18? | $1.3K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?