Fluffy-Problem
Skill vs luck
Fluffy-Problem on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fluffy-Problem: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x951fff108e601c7ee0081d96c6016e4eaeace430. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fluffy-Problem: +$1.4K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$1.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL Over @ 71¢ | Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $1.4K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?