Muffled-Shaker-Bolero
Skill vs luck
Muffled-Shaker-Bolero on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$975. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Muffled-Shaker-Bolero: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x94c0fe2732c661ed6c7534b0a2a61f0e090eff8a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Muffled-Shaker-Bolero: −$975 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$975
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Bulls @ 50¢ | Wizards vs. Bulls ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-24? |
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-24? | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Alexander Volkanovski @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Alexander Volkanovski @ 49¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?