Pricey-Sugar
Skill vs luck
Pricey-Sugar on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 63% (95% range 31%–86%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Pricey-Sugar: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9483d921868f2a6ab4d3355d15fdbe9c447c0832. Data CC BY 4.0.
Pricey-Sugar: −$1.3K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 31%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$3.4K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$2.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY MIBR @ 37¢ | Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Vitality @ 60¢ | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Down
@ 51¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Down
@ 70¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Down
@ 55¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | $2.6K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Gothic
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Gothic vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B |
Counter-Strike: Gothic vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B | $2.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 93¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons @ 81¢ | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage ↗ | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?