Disastrous-Marketing
Skill vs luck
Disastrous-Marketing on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$11K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Disastrous-Marketing: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x938673ccaa2dabaab91080c0c591628187bbfdfe. Data CC BY 4.0.
Disastrous-Marketing: +$11K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- +$2.8K
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$8.3K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$433
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Gen.G @ 61¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $8.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Anyones Legend @ 59¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $5.9K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes @ 45¢ | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $3.1K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Yes @ 62¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $13K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?