Spectacular-Lottery-Cayenne
Skill vs luck
Spectacular-Lottery-Cayenne on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 24%–76%) · profit +$471. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spectacular-Lottery-Cayenne: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x92ddbf2b275e105d2477e62d7f5fd6626002c5e5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spectacular-Lottery-Cayenne: +$471 on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 24%–76%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$471
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | SELL Movistar KOI @ 99¢ | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY GamerLegion @ 97¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY OG @ 96¢ | Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY HULIGANI
@ 95¢
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner | $4.5K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Team Yandex
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $2.1K |
| Oct 21 | SELL Dawn Bulls
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner | $2.2K |
| Oct 21 | SELL Inner Circle
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A |
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?