Jumbo-Autumn-Appropriation

0x914eee11dafaafdae647fa3c9d1537a92348dea4

Skill vs luck

Jumbo-Autumn-Appropriation on Polymarket: 32 settled bets · won 69% (95% range 51%–82%) · profit −$53. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Jumbo-Autumn-Appropriation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x914eee11dafaafdae647fa3c9d1537a92348dea4. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Jumbo-Autumn-Appropriation: −$53 on 32 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 51%–82%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$53

return −0.1%

Settled bets

$40K staked

Won

68.8%

95% range 51%–82%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 3: −$16
Sep 3 – Sep 17: −$431
Sep 17 – Oct 1: +$186
Oct 1 – Oct 16: +$193
Oct 16 – Oct 30: +$15

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.5% (2,471 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 30	SELL No @ 55¢ Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? ↗	$2.2K
Oct 29	BUY No @ 97¢ Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? ↗	$1.3K
Oct 28	BUY Yes @ 97¢ Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 30?	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 30?	$1.2K
Oct 28	SELL No @ 94¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	$1.0K
Oct 24	SELL No @ 99¢ Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 19-25?	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 19-25?	$1.0K
Oct 22	BUY No @ 99¢ Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 22?	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 22?	$1.7K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 99.3¢ Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18?	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18?	$1.7K
Oct 14	BUY No @ 95¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18?	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18?	$1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793343609, computed 2026-10-30 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793343609 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed