Identical-Wit-Employee
Skill vs luck
Identical-Wit-Employee on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$1.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Identical-Wit-Employee: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8dc98564315c586f849fd5afbe3152019b77434f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Identical-Wit-Employee: +$1.6K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$4.3K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$3.2K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$556
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$41
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 86¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $7.2K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 93¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? ↗ | $8.0K |
| Oct 31 | SELL No @ 99.4¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $8.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 92¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 92¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? ↗ | $7.0K |
| Oct 31 | SELL No @ 99.6¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $7.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 98¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 22 | SELL No
@ 75¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? |
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.