Venerated-Ignorance
Skill vs luck
Venerated-Ignorance on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 51%–100%) · profit +$4.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Venerated-Ignorance: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8d266b3a02e34cfaaaf2469dcbd35ed6a1291c15. Data CC BY 4.0.
Venerated-Ignorance: +$4.1K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 51%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$2.5K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$1.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Lakers @ 58¢ | Raptors vs. Lakers ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Pacers @ 71¢ | Pacers vs. Nets ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 89¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes @ 11¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 89¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes @ 11¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.