Imperfect-Disability
Skill vs luck
Imperfect-Disability on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 17%–69%) · profit −$5.3K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Imperfect-Disability: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8c6ad9f9cb497d9bb347dd1be43ebeebc1663dd7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Imperfect-Disability: −$5.3K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 17%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 2 – Oct 16
- −$1.5K
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$3.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Hornets @ 37¢ | Hornets vs. Wizards ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5 |
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5 | $5.8K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5 |
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Lakers
@ 48¢
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) |
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) | $3.8K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Warriors @ 43¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Under
@ 46¢
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 |
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 | $5.2K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Under
@ 48¢
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 221.5 |
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 221.5 | $5.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | Nuggets vs. Thunder ↗ | $2.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.