Shameful-Start
Skill vs luck
Shameful-Start on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$46. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shameful-Start: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x88ee376120bfcf1daf5642c5d8a6b45d7637c234. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shameful-Start: +$46 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$46
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | BUY Yes @ 69¢ | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes @ 97¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes @ 62¢ | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes @ 78¢ | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?